The Impending Economic Chastisement

By John Grasmeier

Angelqueen.org
March 9, 2008

Although this publication normally avoids matters not immediately related to Catholicism, particularly traditional Catholicism, there are, at times, exceptions to every rule. This is one of those times.

Concerning the economy, there are troubling storm clouds gathering. Records are being broken and precedents being set, that when pondered after totaling the sum of their parts, indicate clearly, as the title of this article suggests, that economic chastisement will be a part of all of our lives in the near future. It seems no longer a question of whether or not such chastisement will occur; only how severe it will have been when all is said and done.

While the neoconservative Fox News offers its unrelenting chain of stories on missing white girls (tragic as they may be) and other mainstream outlets seem overly concerned with the foibles of this insufferable crew of motley presidential candidates, the established media has been derelict in its duty by woefully underreporting on what could turn out to be the biggest economic story in recent memory, or heaving forbid, the biggest economic story in many of our lifetimes.

Largely because of media malingering, many of us are unaware of just how bad things are out there. Hence, it is necessary for this article to appear, uncharacteristically, on AQ, if for no other reason than to inform brother and sister Catholics, so that they may come to their own conclusions and act accordingly in the best interests of themselves and their families.

If the pre-existing conditions leading up to the tech crash of the late 90s and the Savings and Loan scandal of the late 80s are any indication of the adversity that followed, those pre-existing conditions have nothing on those we’re seeing now. Read what follows and come your own conclusions.

Banking

American banking is in the process of what can only be described as a meltdown that is now encompassing all facets of the industry, including mortgage banking, commercial banking and investment banking.

To make a long, complicated and extremely unpleasant story short, millions of bad loans were made to unqualified borrowers by lenders who, unencumbered by the risk of default, were able to package bad paper and sell it off through a number of creative vehicles provided them by clearinghouse operations on Wall Street and elsewhere, which then sought to sell securities in the entire mess.

With the accountability factor largely removed, underwriters who in the past would have closely examined a borrower’s debt ratios, income and employment stability, began playing fast and loose when qualifying borrowers for first mortgage and home equity lines.

As it turns out, the securities, many of which were given unwarranted high ratings (that’s another story) and sold to municipalities, school boards and plain old investors were not so secure after all, once borrowers began defaulting en masse and any presumed equity disappeared as a result of the ongoing real estate market crash.

What’s following now, is not some cyclical shakeout of small, undercapitalized or poorly managed Johnny-come-latelys, but rather, a large scale, industry-wide phenomenon that goes far beyond what could be considered a healthy correction. Contrary to the old saying, the poop didn’t “roll downhill.” It defied the laws of physics and made its way uphill to the loftiest of peaks, landing in the laps of many at the very top of the Ponzi scheme. A few of the more outstanding examples follow.

Citigroup, the largest bank in the United States, took a whopping 18 billion in write-downs during the 4th quarter of 2007, this after taking 8.5 billion in write-downs in the 3rd quarter of 2007. Facing a ten year low in its stock value, in an effort to stop the bleeding, Citigroup sold a 5% stake in the company to the United Arab Emirates, making the UAE its largest shareholder. Although Citi is currently negotiating even further significant sell-offs with potential investors in Asia and the Mideast, many analysts are saying that even that won’t be enough to maintain solvency.

After suffering severe losses, Countrywide, America’s largest mortgage lender, is now in the process of being acquired by Bank of America. Along with Countrywide’s numerous balance sheet problems and investigations by state Attorneys General, BOA will also inherit a slew of potentially costly individual and class-action lawsuits. As this piece is being written, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the FBI has a launched securities fraud investigation, seeking to discover whether Countrywide (along with 13 additional yet to be named financial institutions), among other things, engaged in falsification of data in order to inflate its stock price.

A particularly bizarre and shocking incident offers microcosmic insight into the depths of inexcusable malfeasance to which mortgage lending in general, and Countrywide in particular, has sunk.

According to a report by the Chicago Tribune, that needs to be read to be believed, Countrywide loaned $450,000 secured by an aged Greystone in Chicago. The transaction became somewhat problematic when it was found that the actual owner of the now foreclosed upon property was never in any condition to apply for the mortgages. You see, his skeletal remains, along with those of loyal his dog lying at his feet, were discovered by horrified buyers who thought they were getting a great deal when they bought the property for $70,000 (a meager 15% of what was owed to Countrywide) at a foreclosure sale. Regulators, law enforcement officials and attorneys now looking into the debacle are left to wonder how title could possibly have been conveyed by a skeleton, the same skeleton that the appraiser somehow missed.

It seems that the slogan “no one can do what Countrywide can” has taken on a whole new meaning.

Before many of Countrywide’s troubles came to light, the BOA acquisition had already been coming under increasing scrutiny from various quarters, including Federal watchdogs, U.S. Senators, states Attorneys General and even (of course) from U.S. presidential candidates seeking to make political hay from disaffected voting blocks. BOA (which is experiencing significant troubles of its own) had agreed to purchase Countrywide at a fire-sale price, 80% lower than Countrywide’s 52 week peak value. According to the negotiated terms, if the deal falls through, which seems increasingly likely as time passes, Countrywide could be liable to pay BOA 160 million dollars. With a spurned ex-buyer, along with even more debt and headaches than existed when hoped for fire-sale began, logic dictates that America’s largest mortgage lender will then have become little more than vulture food, if it doesn’t altogether cease to exist.

Investment banking is fairing no better than its commercial and mortgage banking colleagues. Recently available year-end figures show that Merrill “The Bull” Lynch will suffer its first yearly loss in nearly 20 years, while Morgan Stanley’s earnings dropped by more than 50% during the same period.

Thought at first to have skated through the “sub-prime” crisis, trouble is also brewing at Goldman Sachs, the world’s largest, and (until now at least) most respected investment banker. Along with being among the numerous Wall Street firms being sued by the City of Cleveland and the City and State of New York, many gurus believe GS also to be among the 14 financial institutions mentioned above that are being investigated by the FBI. Some are beginning to question why while one Goldman hand was talking up questionable sub-prime products, the other Goldman hand was raking in a fortune shorting some of the very same types of products.

Hedge funds, which had been a lucrative several billion dollar cash cow for Goldman and many other Wall Street fatsos, are in the process of being ravaged. With the majority of them now in red territory because of stingier lenders and panicky margin calls (some of which aren’t being met by managers), it seems a bad moon may be rising. Goldman’s own Alpha Fund suffered a 40% decline in 2007. Although delving too deeply into intricacies of the 1.6 trillion dollar hedge industry would not be appropriate for this article, suffice to say, that these funds, Goldman managed/owned or not, are in very deep trouble. Many are now freezing divestment, which is not a good sign. Two of Bear Stearns funds did likewise last June and wound up in bankruptcy by August.

Goldman stock has dropped 26% since the beginning of the year. With over 60 billion of questionable assets now coming to light that have been kept off the books through avant-garde accounting practices, Goldman may have had far more exposure in the banking meltdown than was previously assumed. In addition to eliminating around 3,000 positions from its employment roles over the last year, GS will also be slashing 10% of its investment banking business in the very near future.

None of this, however, will touch any of those at the top of the Goldman pecking order, who are due to receive absurdly excessive compensation packages. CEO Lloyd Blankfeid is walking off with around $100 million in salary and stocks for a years work in paper manipulation, while Co-Operating Officers Gary Cohn and Jon Winkelried each received compensation worth around $53 million.

Although the blame for the banking industry’s woes has been disproportionately placed at the feet of the sub-prime market, the primary market has been shaken as well. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major government-chartered companies which purchase and repackage prime home loans, have each lost more than two-thirds of their stock value since summer of 2007. Both have reported billions in losses for the 4th quarter of 2007.

The immense fallout has by no means been contained within the borders the good ol´ US of A. For example, the United Bank of Switzerland recently reported a 4.4 billion dollar loss for the year 2007. This first ever full-year loss for the banking giant came as a result of losing a staggering $18 billion in the U.S. sub-prime market. What’s particularly troubling about this factoid is that until now, the conservative Swiss have historically enjoyed the distinction of having a certain degree of immunity to the pitfalls affecting their less untouchable counterparts in the industry. Of course there’s a first time for everything, but it never occurred to most that this troubling milestone would reached in such a manner.

Housing

On Thursday, March 6, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that at nearly 8%, the past due or foreclosure rate for the fourth quarter of 2007 was at an all-time record since it began compiling such figures 29 years ago in 1979. On the same day, the Federal Reserve reported that American homeowner equity had fallen below 50%, the lowest rate since the figure was first tracked 1945. While the housing crisis is a nationwide problem, some areas have been particularly hard hit. In Detroit, one out of 20 of all mortgages are now in one stage or another of the foreclosure process. Southwest Florida is experiencing nothing less than an outright crash, with 1 out of 87 residential units in Fort Myers and Cape Coral currently being foreclosed upon, while unemployment in the housing reliant are has reached its highest level in 15 years.

With all of the foreclosures taking place, it would seem to follow that the rental market would be booming. That, however, is not the case. There exists such an overabundance of inventory, that in many areas, residences are either sitting vacant or renting at rates far below operating costs. In some areas, large homes in manicured planned communities are renting to section 8 tenants. The inventory of housing, new and existing, doesn't seem likely to deplete any time soon. The "warm body" sub-prime borrowers are either in foreclosure or seen as radioactive by lenders, while homeowners who've kept their credit in good standing are incapable or unwilling to sell their homes in a depressed market in order to take advantage of some of the deals available.

Part of the reason for the massive inventory, that many feel will take years to get through, is due to overbuilding in an overheated market. Many of those builders, large and small alike, are now dropping like flies. One of the most notable (and astounding to those in the industry) falls from great heights being the very icon of suburban development, Levitt and Sons. Credited with changing the face of suburban America after the established itself by offering affordable middle-class housing during the post-war 1940s, America’s “oldest and most trusted builder” filed for Chapter 11 in November and immediately ceased all construction. New East coast communities that were planned and engineered for thousands of homes now sit with a smattering of houses and unfinished roads and amenities, as buyers are faced with losing thousands of dollars each in deposits on homes that will never be built.

Multi-billion dollar Tousa Homes, with operations in Florida, Colorado, Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania has also filed for chapter 11. California based Dunmore, established in 1959, is in the process of liquidating its assets, after announcing that it won’t be emerging from a chapter 11 filing that was intended for reorganization. The company has since been sold to a loan consultant for $500.

For builders that have thus far managed to limp their way through the wreckage, few are seeing good times. Florida based, publicly traded giant WCI reported potentially crippling losses of between $410 million and $460 million in the 4th quarter of 2007, earning the company an undesirable first place Motley Fool’s “Worst Stock in the World” list. Many large builders are simply stopping construction altogether, leaving in their wake unfinished projects, thousands of layoffs and countless out of work subcontractors.

Energy

Now at over $105 per barrel and steadily climbing, the price of oil has surpassed all previously reached historic highs. Gasoline is exceeding, $3.50 per gallon in some areas, with some analysts saying it may his $4 by summer. Most troubling, is the fact that both gasoline and crude are at record highs not only in current dollar amounts, but also when adjusted for inflation. The previous inflation adjusted records for a barrel of oil (103.76) and a gallon of gas (3.06) were both set in 1980. According to the Automobile Association of America, it is only going to get worse, as decreasing supply, due to temporary refinery shutdowns and increasing demand, due to warm weather travel will drive prices up even further.

Feeling the financial pinch when we fuel our automobiles and heat our homes will be only the very direct downside, and perhaps the least of our problems. As the cost of doing business rises in essentials such as transportation and electricity, everything, literally everything, becomes more expensive – food, clothing, durable goods, building materials, diapers, widgets, pork bellies, electronics – you name it.

The Almighty Dollar

It’s not very almighty any longer. In fact it’s not even all that impressive. The DXY, an index used to measure the value of the dollar against a handful of currencies, has the dollar at its lowest point since the index was created 35 years ago in 1973. The dollar is also at an all time low against the Euro. In days of yore, a Euro could be bought for around 80 cents. At north of a buck fifty, that same Euro would cost you twice that today. What does a weaker dollar mean to the average consumer? One way to view it is that if you have $100,000 in your savings account, or you’ve calculated your net worth to be $100,000, and the dollar retracts, say, 10%, you just lost 10 grand. Extrapolated out, all accounts and equities, large and small, in the private sector and government devalue commensurate with the devaluation of the dollar. A weaker dollar decreases buying power, which, among other thing places inflationary pressure on goods and services across the board, as businesses need to charge more in order to garner the same value from their offerings.

The Stock Market

On Friday March 7, the labor department reported that U.S. employers cut 63,000 jobs in February, an 88,000 shortfall from the projected gain of 25, 000 which analysts had hoped for. The disconcerting news, caused markets to end an already awful week even lower, inspiring an impromptu Rose Garden press conference from a dour looking president Bush attempting to assuage fears. Not only had Wall Street seen a dreadful first week of March, but the entire beginning of 2008 has thus far been a bust. In February, the U.S. stock market fell for the fourth month in a row, setting increasingly disgruntled investors off to a bad start for fiscal year 2008. Currently, the Dow is off around 16% from its all time high of 14, 164, set only 6 months ago last October. The S&P 500 is off 30% from its peak, to its lowest levels in 5 years.

The retraction of U.S. markets is reverberating globally, causing Asian and European markets to follow suit. Needless to say, for businesses, declining stock values translate to, among other things, declining operating funds and cash on hand, declining equity, declining employment and declining growth.

Automotive

If health in the automotive industry is to be viewed, as it always has been, the bellwether of consumer demand, the patient is in intensive care. GM, which recently relinquished its coveted title as the world’s largest automaker to Toyota, has suffered an eye-popping 38.7 billion dollar loss for fiscal year 2007, the largest ever for any automotive company. Ford, which posted its own record loss in 2006 (12.6 billion), has since cut over 40,000 jobs. All three American automakers, GM, Ford and Chrysler have posted double-digit or near double-digit losses for in February, 2008, and all three are now looking at significant cuts in production. Automotive plants and facilities are closings at an unprecedented rate.

The Fed

Gone are the days when Alan Greenspan would send markets skyrocketing after being overheard hinting at a measly .25 basis point cut that may or may not occur some time before the next ice age. The Federal Reserve has been deeply slashing rates at every opportunity, 2.25% since September, to no avail. The “lend and spend” party has come to a screeching halt, and markets either don’t react at all, or react negatively after rate cuts. Instead of seeing Fed cuts as good news, some circles are beginning to view the cuts as signs of further trouble. Adding insult to injury, mortgage rates, which nearly always respond positively to Fed cuts, no longer do.

Currently, the impotent fed is caught between the proverbial rock and hard place. If they keep lowering rates and printing more money, the dollar will continue to slide to further record lows. If they do nothing, or raise rates, lending and liquidity will continue to decline, bringing further troubles to an economy addicted to the seductive concept of borrowing its way into prosperity.

There are many who have long viewed the quasi-private Federal Reserve, and by extension, the modern fractional lending system, as little more than an incestuous racket that does far more harm than good. One reason why the Fed was created was to prevent “bank runs.” They were unable to do that in the 20s. One of their main charges today is preventing inflation, which they were unable to do in the late 70s, and seem incapable of doing so now. Inflation is already at 5% and expected to go higher, as reflected in the bond markets. Bloomberg is describing the Fed as “losing control” over inflation.

Will the long knives that have been out for the Fed now sink deeper than in the past? Only time will tell.

Interestingly, its current chairman, Ben Bernanke admitted in 2002, when he agreed with Milton Freedman that the Fed, created only a decade and a half before the depression began, largely contributed to it.

“I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.” – Ben Bernanke, November 8, 2002